April 19, 2025
Headlines

    Factbox-Brokerages lift S&P 500 target on hopes for soft landing, rate cuts

    Daily Wealth Watch02 mins

    (Reuters) -Brokerages have raised their year-end targets for the U.S. stocks benchmark S&P 500, spurred by expectations of a “soft landing” for the economy and growing odds the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

    Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:

    Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

    S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

    target yield

    target

    Goldman Sachs 5,200 4.00% 1.12 145 7.05

    Morgan Stanley 4,500 1 140 7.5

    UBS Global 5,200 3.85% 1.09 148 7.25

    Wealth

    Management*

    Wells Fargo 5,100-5,300 4.25-4.75% 1.06-1.10 156-160

    Investment

    Institute

    Barclays 5,300 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20

    J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.25

    BofA Global 5,400 4.25% 1.12 155 7.45

    Research

    Deutsche Bank 5,500 135

    4.60% 1.07

    Citigroup 5,100 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25

    HSBC 5,400 3.00% 1.05 145 7.10

    Oppenheimer

    5,500

    UBS Global 7.15

    Research* 5,600 4.0% 1.05 160

    * UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

    —-

    U.S. INFLATION

    U.S. consumer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in May amid cheaper gasoline, but inflation likely remains too high for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates before September against the backdrop of a persistently strong labor market.

    U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)

    Headline CPI Core PCE

    Goldman Sachs 2.50% 2.5%

    Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70%

    Wells Fargo 3.0% 2.60%

    Investment

    Institute

    Barclays 2.70% 2.4%

    J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%

    BofA Global 3.5% 2.8%

    Research

    Deutsche Bank

    3.10%

    Citigroup 2.0% 3.0%

    HSBC 3.4%

    —–

    Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

    GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA

    AREA

    Goldman 5.0% 6.6%

    Sachs 0.8%

    2.7% 2.6% 0.9%

    Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%

    Stanley

    UBS Global 3.1% 2.4% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%

    Wealth

    Management*

    Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2%

    J.P.Morgan 2.2% 1.6% 5.2% 0.4% 0.3% 5.7%

    BofA Global 3.0% 2.5% 5.0% 0.6% 0.3% 5.8%

    Research

    2.4% 5.2% 0.9% 0.8% 7.0%

    Deutsche

    Bank 3.2%

    Citigroup 1.9% 1.0% 4.6% -0.2% 0.1% 6.3%

    HSBC 2.6% 2.3% 4.9% 0.5% 0.4% 6.3%

    UBS Global 3.1% 2.3% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%

    Research*

    (Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Sriraj Kalluvila and Anil D’Silva)

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